Northmarq's National Healthcare Group: A Conversation with Toby Scrivner

Over the last 15 years there has been increased enthusiasm by investors for healthcare properties, with virtually every national commercial brokerage firm establishing a healthcare specialty group. How are we different?

Our difference lies in the depth and breadth of our experience as pioneers in this sector. With decades of cumulative expertise, we have worked across every facet of the healthcare continuum, understanding the unique facilities required to deliver high-quality care. This comprehensive perspective allows us to anticipate the evolving needs of healthcare providers and developers, delivering solutions aimed at fostering growth and setting us apart in a competitive market. Like “skating to where the puck is going to be,” we leverage forward-looking insights, strategic partnerships with complementary service companies, and proprietary data sources to deliver value at the earliest stages of real estate projects. This proactive, data-driven approach ensures that our partners are positioned for long-term success in a rapidly changing healthcare landscape.

Team Scrivner was an early aggregator of healthcare transaction data, compiling reports on the asset class while it was still lumped together with general office. What have you learned from your data and what is the future of data analytics in healthcare real estate?

Since 2010, our Pulse on the Market transaction newsletter has been a cornerstone of our commitment to data-driven insights, positioning Team Scrivner as an early aggregator of healthcare transaction data when the asset class was still categorized with general office. Over the years, we’ve gained a profound understanding of healthcare real estate trends, allowing us to identify shifts in investor demand, asset valuations and market performance well ahead of the curve. Today, we take data analytics even further by incorporating provider-specific payor data and national benchmarks for various specialty practices, enabling us to align real estate strategies with the unique needs of healthcare providers. Our detailed analytics also incorporate comparable sales, current market lease economics and forecasted absorption and lease rates, empowering us to produce valuation reports that are grounded in past, present and future data. This comprehensive approach ensures accurate, forward-thinking pricing strategies that support investment decisions and drive value for our partners in this evolving sector.

How do you leverage data for the benefit of your clients?

We leverage our healthcare real estate-specific database, which provides access to the latest construction, leasing, ownership and sale transaction intelligence, enabling us to deliver timely and valuable insights that position our clients for success. By combining this data with private and federal payor information specific to healthcare providers, we conduct market research to identify underserved areas (gap analysis) and pinpoint specialty providers who can fulfill critical gaps in healthcare services. These resources allow us to add value at the earliest stages of a project’s concept, ensuring a strategic approach that aligns with market demand and sets the foundation for long-term success. When the time comes to take the investment property to market, our data-driven expertise ensures optimal positioning and results.

How do you work with other brokers using your access to data?

We consider brokers as part of the client base we serve. We have a long history of collaborating with brokers both within Northmarq and across the broader industry. Recognizing the immense value that comes from local market expertise and trusted client relationships, we strive to make use of those resources when available. The goal is for each party to bring value to the project or client and earn a fee commensurate with the values provided. By partnering seamlessly with brokers, we aim to enhance the client-broker dynamic, providing access to our extensive data resources and market insights to elevate the overall quality of engagement. Our intent is to deliver value beyond the transaction itself – leveraging data to inform investment strategies, optimize real estate solutions and ensure long-term sustainability for all parties involved. This collaborative approach allows us to complement the broker’s unique strengths while contributing actionable intelligence, leveraged with our deep relationships in the healthcare real estate community, that support successful outcomes for clients and brokers.

What advice do you have for provider clients and healthcare CRE investors?

There are opportunities in every market environment, and strategic alignment with experienced healthcare specialists is key to capitalizing on them. The low-interest rate environment prior to October 2022 fueled unprecedented demand for healthcare real estate, driving increased transaction volumes and elevated valuations. While the current landscape may present higher borrowing costs, it also provides discerning investors the opportunity to institute rent increases and healthcare providers to target value-add projects, expand into underserved markets and explore creative investment structures that mitigate capital investments. Leveraging our extensive database of healthcare construction, leasing, ownership and sales transaction data, as well as private and federal payor information, we help clients identify underserved markets and specialty providers to fill critical gaps. This data-driven approach ensures that provider clients and healthcare CRE investors make informed decisions that align with both current market conditions and long-term strategic goals, maximizing the potential for success in any market environment.

What are the areas of greatest opportunity in 2025?

In 2025, the most significant opportunities in healthcare real estate are anticipated in sectors such as medical outpatient buildings (MOBs), seniors housing and behavioral health facilities. The aging U.S. population is a primary driver, with projections indicating that by 2030, 20% of Americans will be past the age of retirement, increasing the demand for healthcare services. This demographic shift is expected to lead to a substantial need for additional healthcare facilities. Considering the current shortfall and projected retirements, the nursing workforce alone may face a deficit of up to 800,000 by 2025, underscoring the necessity for expanded healthcare infrastructure to support both patients and providers. Investors and developers focusing on these high-demand sectors can address critical service gaps and capitalize on the evolving healthcare landscape.  

What additional thoughts would you share with healthcare investors?

No one understands or appreciates the benefits of specialization better than healthcare professionals. With decades of experience in the healthcare real estate sector, we bring unparalleled expertise, industry insights and a proven track record of success to every project. Our deep understanding of the healthcare industry, creative deal structures and extensive transaction experience uniquely position us to navigate the complexities of this dynamic market. Whether you're a provider, investor or broker, we offer the strategic guidance and data-driven insights needed to unlock opportunities and achieve your goals. Let us partner with you to deliver real estate solutions that create lasting value in an ever-evolving healthcare landscape.

Learn more

• View our Healthcare research
• Learn about our Healthcare capabilities
• Browse our Healthcare listings